COVID-19 Risk Dial Remains in Red

Published on December 18, 2020

Indicators improve but still high

Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird and the Lincoln-Lancaster County Health Department (LLCHD) today announced that the COVID-19 Risk Dial remains in red for the seventh week, indicating that the risk of the virus spreading in the community is severe. On the color-coded dial, red represents the highest risk of COVID-19 spread, and green represents the lowest risk. The dial is updated every Friday.

The position of the Risk Dial is based on multiple local indicators and information from the previous three weeks. Health Director Pat Lopez said most indicators are showing improvement, but not enough to move us out of the red position.

• The total number of new cases dropped from the all-time high of 2,112 the week ending December 5 to 1,430 last week, a decline of about 32 percent  It was the first decline in weekly cases since the week ending September 19.  The seven-day rolling average of daily cases went from an all-time high of 302 on December 5 to 146 yesterday.  
• The weekly positivity rate went from an all-time high of 33.9 percent the week ending December 5, to  27.1  last week.  This week, the rate has stayed fairly flat at 27 to 29 percent, which Lopez said is still very high. 
• This week, the number of individuals with COVID-19 who are hospitalized dropped below 100 for the first time since November 2.   The peak hospitalization was 177 patients on November 29.  Today, 86 COVID-19 patients are hospitalized locally.

Lopez said the increased number of deaths remain a concern.  In the 18 days of December,  56  Lancaster County residents have died of COVID-19, about 41 percent of the 135 local COVID-19 deaths.  “Because of the well- established correlation between case numbers and hospitalizations, we expect that the improvement in case numbers will translate into a decrease in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks,” said Lopez. 

Mayor Gaylor Baird and Lopez both thanked the public and local businesses for helping to lower case numbers by following the recommended precautions.  But  Lopez said it will take longer than just two weeks of indicators to come down to an overall safer level to move the dial back to Orange, indicating a high risk of the virus spreading.  

The COVID-19 Risk Dial first moved into Red on Friday, November 6.  Lopez said indicators continue to be higher than they were at the end of October when the Dial was in Orange.

• At the end of October, the seven-day rolling average of new daily cases was 127.  As of yesterday the average was 146.
• The weekly case count was 890 at the end of October.  At the end of last week it was 1,430.
• At the end of October, the weekly positivity rate was 18 percent.  This week, the rate has stayed fairly flat between 27 and 28 percent.
• The seven day rolling average of COVID-19 patients hospitalized was 75 at the end of October.  As of yesterday ,the average was 109.

Lopez said overall testing numbers have declined for several weeks from the peak of 6,815 the week ending November 21.  Last week, 5,276 people were tested, and so far this week, 2,953 tests have been conducted locally.

For more information, visit COVID19.lincoln.ne.gov or call the Health Department hotline at 402-441-8006.